This is a crucial question for any entrepreneur looking to enter the Dakar market: how to define and quantify the middle class? The issue is thorny, since the assessment is the subject of heated debates in international institutions and research centers.
Despite the lack of recent data, many observers believe that a dynamic of averaging is underway in the Senegalese capital. “There is a trend, just look at the development of the mass distribution sector, leisure infrastructure or hotel offerings aimed directly at the middle and upper classes”, estimates Hamidou Badji, former director of strategy and business development of Teyliom in Senegal.
Pathé, Decathlon, KFC…
This is evidenced by the creation, in October 2022, of a 5,000 m² multiplex of the Pathé cinema chain (Seydoux group), in the Mermoz neighborhood, in the heart of Dakar. “Its location is not a coincidence, it is attached to one of the largest Auchan stores in the capital, on the edge of one of the city's busiest roads, connecting the center of Dakar to the Northern Escape Route (VDN) towards the suburbs. In my opinion, this is a test combination that can be reproduced”, continues Hamidou Badji. On this land equipped with ample parking, you can feel also a Decathlon store and a KFC restaurant: a cocktail of choice to attract a segment of the population with a certain purchasing power.
“In 20 years, the panorama has changed considerably”, estimates Allan Boutbien, a businessman who presents himself as a specialist in social intelligence and local dynamics. He cites the disorder, the rental football pitches that are multiplying in the capital, the biker stables that are sometimes found on the roads, the employees who receive food at the workplace...
Similar dynamics in Abidjan
But also the opening of restaurants, clinics, the development of banking services or personalized real estate programs – a sign that a Dakar middle class is developing, more demanding and quick to spend more on leisure activities.
The appetite for consuming “premium” products would also reach the suburbs, with the opening of sports halls, for example. The local leader in mass distribution, Auchan, has opened several convenience stores, such as in Pikine, Keur Massar and Zac Mbao.
“The reading grid is fragmented, observation may be biased, due to the lack of statistics, particularly in the informal sector, but we observe a growth dynamic, like Abidjan in its time”, says Allan Boutbien.
Development of local tourism
Another visible indicator: the new excitement of Dakar residents for walks in the Petite-Côte or excursions in Sine Saloum or Casamance. “In August and September, Senegalese represent 50 to 60% of our customers. They spend a lot on massages and treatments”, says Marie Laude, partner at the 5-star Riu Baobab hotel located in Pointe-Sarene. A cause for surprise for the Spanish hotel group Riu which, when it opened with great fanfare in April 2022, did not think it would reach the Senegalese population. National and African visitors today represent 20% of Senegal's total tourism offer, according to Mamadou Racine Sy, head of King Fahdu's Palace and president of the federations of tourism employers' organizations in Senegal (Fopits) and at ECOWAS level. (Copitouro) .
“This new middle class in Dakar is more educated, most work in the private sector. More and more they are creating their own businesses, in services or commerce. They are also politically active”, says Ernesto Hane, marketing director at electronic retailer Jumia. More anchored in tradition, the middle class in the informal sector would have its own way of consumption.
Lack of data
But why is data so rare in this sensitive area? “Ten years ago it was exaggerated to talk about the middle class African. We were emerging from a global economic crisis, many investors saw the African continent as a new El Dorado to explore. In fact, several companies have carried out studies on the stability of these middle classes, continues Ernesto Hane. Today, it is an opposite trend. You need to be on the ground to understand that behind the African elite, a middle class is growing very quickly, we see the same phenomenon in Abidjan or Accra”, analyzes this expert.
The Senegalese capital concentrates 60% of the country's economic activity and around 25% of the Senegalese population, although it represents less than 0.3% of the national territory. Several factors explain this average dynamic: the country's economic growth, which averaged 6.5% during the period 2014-2023, according to Ousseyni Kane, project manager for the Emerging Senegal Plan (PSE), and which led to an increase in jobs and evolution; access to education with the opening of schools, high schools and universities – a lever to enter the formal economy; and finally, the urbanization of the country, of Dakar in particular, with access to new opportunities, such as in the VTC or delivery sectors. Ultimately, the opening of oil and gas valves could accentuate this trend, since the current flu.
For Ernesto Hane, “it is the middle class that to drive the economic growth of West African countries, and not of elites who consume a lot abroad. Without it, Dakar or Abidjan would not be the cities they are today.”
Dakar, a tree that hides the forest?
But Dakar's dynamics have an impact somewhat on the suburbs and even less on the regions. “There is growing inequality in Senegal, with a form of gap, which did not exist before, between a middle class that is developing very quickly and a vulnerable class that cannot escape its situation”, continues Ernesto Hane.
In fact, according to the National Agency for Statistics and Demography, the number of poor people decreased by 139,330 individuals in Dakar, between 2011 and 2018/2019, where it increased respectively by 327,620 and 11,758 individuals in other urban and rural areas.
“Like poverty, vulnerability in Senegal is high in all regions, with the exception of Dakar”, states in black and white the latest World Bank report on the country's economic situation in 2023. In 2022, inflation reached 9 .6%, hitting poor families the hardest. who spent more than half of their income he has food.
