“Asphyxiate”, “suffocate”, “isolate”… To describe the intention of international and regional communities when they took economic assessments against the collection of soldiers who overthrew the power in force in Niger at the end of July, there is no shortage of words. They all converge on the same idea: by putting pressure on the country's revenues, by endangering its population and its economy in the broadest sense, the quasi-embargo should force the coup plotters to return the keys to the elected president, Mohamed Bazoum.
An economic weapon, therefore, used in recent history, namely against Iran and, more recently, against Russia. And it has not had the expected results, with the regimes in force and the obvious violations of international law having not yet ceased. Furthermore, as In In any situation of oppression – without prejudice to its legitimacy – the more time passes, the more situations change and the more the “oppressed” adapt. Will it be the same in Niger? In this country located in the heart of the Sahel that represents so many geopolitical and strategic issues with its oil wealth? A country that is expected to see its GDP jump next year and where stagnation is not accidental.
Fear of contagion
Is it necessary to specify that the military coup orchestrated by General Tiani makes Niger the fourth country affected by a coup in the region since 2020? Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso… For the heads of state gathered in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), at least those whose names have not been temporarily removed from the list of fifteen members due to a coup, it is not a question of innovation , but to stop it. Alassane Ouattara, Macky Sall, Bola Tinubu and Patrice Talon in leadership want to avoid a contagion phenomenon at all costs. And the statutes of the institution they opted for allow them to activate this modern leverage.
Thus, article 77 of the revised ECOWAS treaty signed in Cotonou in 1993 provides for a specific arsenal. “When a Member State fails to honor its obligations to the community, the Assembly may adopt assessments against it” provides the first paragraph, establishing the legal framework and the organization's legitimacy to sanction Niger. The following paragraph is more precise with regard to the economic part: “ These assessments may include: suspending the provision of any new loans or assistance from the community; suspension of disbursement of all loans, all ongoing community assistance projects or programs. » Of course, for Niger, it's all there. As was the case with Mali – the strongest evaluations at the time – and Burkina Faso. But this time ECOWAS was longer, the measures adopted were drastic, unprecedented.
Unparalleled sanctions
To force the Nigerian junta to concede – in addition to a threat of coordinated armed intervention – commercial transactions were suspended, financial flows were interrupted, land borders were closed (with the exception of those shared with Chad and Algeria, which do not belong to ECOWAS). ) . , and security cooperation was also disrupted. As for air services, they are now extremely limited. Compared to the sanctions imposed against Burkina Faso and Mali, access to which has not been completely closed, and especially with regard to the relatively limited and long-term targeted sanctions, the current situation in Niger has no parallel in the region.
Through the analysis of the ECOWAS treaty combined, in a subtle balance, with international pressures and the desire to maintain stability and democracy, we understand that the heads of state in power – reinforced by Paris and Washington – intend to carry out this umpteenth coup . May he be the last. But how long will they be able to resist without difficulties in an already vulnerable country? Let's take the ball away in Crystal.
