The hundreds of videos broadcast on television channels around the world or retransmitted on social networks are not enough to measure the scale of the double disaster that engulfed Derna, the ancient capital of Cyrenaica, which had 100,000 inhabitants. It has been isolated from the world since Storm Daniel hit eastern Libya on September 10, also causing damage – of lesser magnitude – in Benghazi, Sousse, El Beïda and El Merj.
Libya is in shock and struggling to understand what happened. Of course, this region located 1,340 km east of Tripoli has already suffered natural damage, but never of this magnitude. The El Merj earthquake in 1963 and its 350 deaths today seem insignificant compared to the 5,300 dead and 6,000 missing counted this Wednesday by the Tripoli government's Libyan Rescue and Emergency Service.
“We can no longer bear the burials, we resort to mass graves”, says a young man who does not even know if those buried in this way have already been identified. “It was the flood, as described in the Quran”, says another witness to this cataclysm that left ten members of his family dead, swept away by the waves.
Almost 72 hours after the tragedy, what exactly do we know about its causes and what could happen next?
How did Storm Daniel form?
Daniel is not just any storm, but an exceptional phenomenon, qualified by experts as “Medicane” – the contraction of “Mediterranean” AND “Hurricane”, hurricane in English. In one night, in this border region with Egypt, the equivalent of 365 days of rain fell, accompanied by extremely strong winds.
#Lybia devastated by deadly floods: why was the damage so significant?
👉To learn more: https://t.co/EvG01YrDg2 pic.twitter.com/W0CRBMGWzM– Jeune Afrique (@jeune_afrique) September 13, 2023
Originally, it was a normal low pressure phenomenon over Turkey that moved towards Bulgaria and then rumors westwards, towards Greece, where heavy rains caused flooding and caused 15 deaths. This depression, pressure between high pressure masses and winds curled upon themselves, in contact with the large body of Mediterranean waters still hot under the effect of a scorching summer and a high temperature index, acquired all the characteristics of a hurricane . “Hurricane” is the specific term for this phenomenon in the Atlantic, while we speak of “cyclone” in the Indian Ocean and the South Pacific, and “typhoon” in Asia.
Why was a storm particularly deadly in Derna?
The city suffered a double shadow: “In a very short time considerable rain fell and the dikes of two dams broke. The combination of these two characteristics related to the Derna disaster”, analyzes Samir Meddeb, specialist in environment and sustainable development. Which specifies that “apparently, but without any certainty, the flood spillways did not function as they do when a dam is saturated. Without this relief, the dikes, which were not made of concrete, but of compacted earth, gave way.” For some, the city, under Italian influence during the colonial period, then a stronghold of the Islamic State (IS) until 2018, also suffered from a lack of maintenance of its infrastructure and wastewater circuits.
Samir Meddeb also believes that, “as in all desert regions where watercourses fill every five or six decades, people forget these episodes and build on the main wadi bed”. Which made the disaster worse. Added to this dynamic is the effect of drought: the soil stops absorbing water and ends up accumulating and forming torrents. But Kevin Collins, professor of environmental systems at the UK Open University, also points out flaws “in the forecasting capabilities of the warning and evacuation system”.
Where is the problem and the help?
Cut roads, earth penetration and flooding isolated the Derna region. As for access to the sea, it is made difficult by strong winds, but also by the destruction of part of the port facilities. 72 hours after the tragedy, telephone and Internet networks have not yet been reestablished, making it difficult to search for people. “We need large equipment and machines to clear the roads”, guarantees a rescuer.
Firefighters, the Libyan Red Crescent and the military forces of General Haftar, who control eastern Libya, are on the ground, while Tripoli declared three days of national mourning, underlining “the unity of all Libyans” in the face of this tragedy. “Many countries are intervening in Libya through arms sales. We ask them today to intervene in a more positive way”, demands Guma el-Gmaty, leader of the Taghyeer party. These requests for international help, particularly from the Libyan Red Crescent, were heard by Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Tunisia, which sent rescue teams.
Algeria also received significant humanitarian aid, which he has it was transported by eight military planes. Egypt dispatched three planes with first aid, as well as search and rescue teams. Qatar envies a field hospital and medical and food aid. France will also establish a field hospital, while the United States will provide emergency funds to humanitarian aid organizations. Additional support coordinated by the UN is planned. Russian President Vladimir Putin also assured that his country is ready to provide the necessary assistance.
What are the risks for the next few days?
Given the number of missing people, Dr Samy Allagui warns of “the risks of diseases or epidemics due to this mass of bodies, some of which carry germs. Not to mention the effects of putrefaction and scavengers attracted by human remains, at sea and on land. Many diseases can cause damage and this risk should be taken very seriously and treat these areas with lime spraying.”
Can we talk about security now?
Originally from Derna, Dr Hani Shennib, from the American National Council on Libyan Relations, points out that “4 km² of buildings were erased from the city center”. Therefore, everything needs to be rebuilt. The head of the Government of National Unity (GNU), Abdelhamid Dbeibah, has already allocated 2 billion Libyan dinars – or $446.4 million – to the Construction Fund for the cities of Benghazi and Derna. An undoubtedly preliminary one in the sense that the cost of future work has obviously not yet been defined, but it undoubtedly aims to show the authorities' ability to respond and unite a people torn apart by a conflict that has lasted twelve years. Some estimate that the cost of overseeing Derna's road infrastructure and bridges, which were completely destroyed, cost $67 million.
Regardless, Daniel's storm faced Libya with the consequences of its political division and resulting ineffective governance. Divided in two, managed by two enemy governments, the country does not have a development policy and is unable to maintain its infrastructure, particularly the dams. Faced with conditions as professional and dramatic as the ones the country has been experiencing for three days, the lack of anticipation and foresight takes a heavy toll and the rescue teams were completely taken by surprise by the scale of the catastrophe.
What lessons can we learn from the disaster?
A catastrophe in Libya could be repeated anywhere in the Mediterranean, and we can only imagine the damage it would cause in areas even more densely populated than Derna. According to the European Copernicus Observatory, sea surface temperatures – which have absorbed 90% of excess heat produced since the industrial era – are rising, leading to record heat increases across the world. This heat helped create the “Medica” that hit northern Cyrenaica.
Ironically, the G20, which took place late last week in New Delhi, India, was not attacked in any strong announcements aimed at taking climate change into account. This meeting of the world's main economies took place after a summer marked by fires, droughts and alarming cyclonic episodes, and precisely at the time when Morocco and Libya were hit by catastrophes. Natural assassin.
